I’ve just cast my first vote in a Welsh election. While I’m not able to vote in the UK elections, three of the four home nations that make up the UK have their own parliaments: Northern Ireland, Scotland, and Wales. While it’s a highly imperfect analogy, it’s sort of like the US system where each state sends representatives both to Washington and their state capital. 

Today, Scotland and Wales both have devolved parliamentary elections. So, here in Cymru, we’re deciding who will represent us in the Senedd in Cardiff, our capital. Because it’s a parliamentary system, whoever forms the next government will appoint the first minister and decide the general policy direction of the nation—sort of like if whoever controlled your state legislature appointed the governor.

And it’s going to be an historic election. 

Unless the polls have been incredibly mistaken, Labour’s century-long hold on Cymru is over. The question is: what’s next? Will UK’s answer to MAGA, Reform, come away as the biggest party? Or Plaid Cymru—the centre-left, pro-independence party?

As an American, who is utterly bewildered by nearly everything that’s happened in US politics for the past decade, I’m anxious—but hopeful. 

While I hear a lot of moaning about the system in Cymru (and to be fair, the D’Hondt system isn’t the most straightforward imaginable), it is playing a critical role in preventing the far right (i.e., Reform) from forming our next government. 

Because we use proportional representation, rather than first past the post, that means Reform have almost zero chance of being able to form the next government. Even if Reform come in first with the greatest number of votes, they will almost certainly not have enough votes to form a government outside of a coalition. And with few willing to work with them, their road to power in Cardiff Bay is very difficult to imagine. 

The most likely scenario is that left-wing parties, probably led by Plaid Cymru, will need to work together to form a coalition. This isn’t a sure thing, but it seems to be the most probable road forward. (If you’re a numbers nerd like me, check out this polling from YouGov that helps explain possible outcomes and coalitions.) 

We’ve seen this show before

It’s deeply alarming to see how many people across South Wales are turning to Reform. 

I speak as an American here again, because the Reform playbook is almost exactly the same as the MAGA playbook. 

1. Charismatic leader who commands a cultlike following
2. Appeal to blue collar workers and values
3. Nostalgia for the way that things used to be without a vision for the future
4. Scape-goating immigrants and “wokeness”
5. Blame and deflect when anything goes wrong—it’s never the party’s fault

Is there a takeaway from this? I think there is: voters, even if they’re light on policy (or especially if they are) want someone they feel that understands them, who will represent them and stick up for their corner. 

When people see Nigel Farage down at the pub sipping a pint and laughing it up, they imagine he’s the sort of bloke they could talk to; real salt of the earth. When they see Trump on a stage running his mouth, insulting people, they long for that sort of pre-PC era when you didn’t have to watch your words so closely—when you wouldn’t get reprimanded for saying the wrong thing. 

On the left, I think Barack Obama represented some of the same—to an extent. He was an aspirational figure. An example of who we might be, while respecting our understanding of who we were and where we’d come from. Who appealed to a better version of ourselves. One that we’ve roundly forgotten in the years since. 

Pro-independence parties on the move

There’s a good possibility that Northern Ireland, Scotland, and Wales will each be led by pro-independence parties following today’s elections. (Sinn Fein and the SNP are already the largest parties in Stormont and Holyrood.)

New polling suggests that a strong majority in both the Republic of Ireland and Northern Ireland are in favour of reunification, while John Swinney, the leader of the Scottish Nationalist Party, is eying another independence referendum. Plaid Cymru is keen to downplay the question—for now. 

But how long is that going to be a tenable position? 

In his new book, Who Cares About Wales?, Will Hayward points out that in the fall-out from the Scottish independence referendum in 2014, the UK government worked with Scotland (and Cymru) to better assure its needs were being met—in part, to try and prevent another referendum. It was a measured act of contrition.

The current Labour government in Westminster doesn’t seem particularly fussed about Welsh grievances—maybe best exhibited by the way that Jo Stevens, MP for Cardiff East, raised an equitable share of transit funding as a key point of concern when the Conservatives were in power, and then promptly forgot about it after becoming the Secretary of State for Wales. 

In Cymru, we have a saying from a very old story: let him who wants to be a leader be a bridge. Keir Starmer has been so laser-focused on draping himself in the garb of a quasi-English nationalist and winning over Reform voters that he has entirely neglected the truest friend that Labour has ever had. If there’s a hope for the union, for one built on free participation and shared prosperity, it’s time to rebuild that bridge.

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